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the empire's warlike manoeuvres in the middle east

1. 19 feb 2012 1The Empires warlike manoeuvres in the Middle EastAbstract1 - A decadent Europe shows its decaying teeth2 - A quick glance on the…
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  • 1. 19 feb 2012 1The Empires warlike manoeuvres in the Middle EastAbstract1 - A decadent Europe shows its decaying teeth2 - A quick glance on the Pentagon/NATOs last brave interventions2.1 – Libya2.2 – Iraq2.3 – Afghanistan2.4 – Syria3 - What is left from tragedies and comedies of the recent past?4 - Iran, the rich target of the Westerners4.1 - Recent history of Westerns interventions in Iran4.2 – The Iranian foreign relationships matrix4.3 - The Iranian nuclear programme4.4 - The impact of the energy sanctions dictated by EU
  • 2. 19 feb 2012 2The Empires warlike manoeuvres in the Middle EastThe geopolitical approach has an advantage the multidisciplinaryintegration (geography, history, economics, cultures, demography…)and is the one that allows for a global vision of the world.Accordingly, although this text focuses in particular in the Middle Eastand Iran, we will take into account that there are no closed regions froma geopolitics point of view and that the planet is a communicatingvessels system, without denying the regional or local particularities.1 - A decadent Europe shows its decaying teethTo the enlightened European leaders, the absence of problems inEurope - where, as is well known, the welfare standards are distinctlyincreasing - justifies the indefinite postponement of any solution to minorproblems such as the banking and state bankruptcies or the economicrecovery.Therefore, they have plenty of time to dictate sanctions against Iran1following their usual obedience of Washingtons orders where - indeed -there is a strategy for the whole world and in particular for the MiddleEast. Tuning to the same strategic obtuseness, they reinvented onJanuary 30 a discredited formula to shackle the indebted EU countries tothe provision of perennial revenues to the financial system, thus avoidingbankruptcies amongst major European banks. Stupidly, or to benefitmajor oil corporations, they contribute to the rise in prices, withoutdisclosing that Europes relevance for the Iranian exports is not that big,as will be seen below.What are they preparing? Probably, one more summit preceded by thecustomary meeting of the "Merkosy" mishmash.1
  • 3. 19 feb 2012 32 - A quick glance of the Pentagon/NATOs latest brave interventionsLet us look at a few notes on the most recent amongst all the Western-led well-intentioned military interventions;2.1 - LibyaNews on Libya are coming through on a regular basis and they are notreassuring - military conflicts, torture, dissents within the new power andpeoples actions against the transitional government imposed in Libya byNATO through the democratic formula of bombing. After thehumanitarian Western intervention, how many of us would expecting theLibyans still have not stopped praying as a token of gratitude for theWestern bombings? The real success of the U.S. “nation-building”strategy will be seen in the near future, in addition to the appropriation ofthe countrys energy resources2.One less well reported aspect is that, following the end of Kaddafis age,the Tuareg troops merged into the Libyan army positioned themselves inMali, demanding the secession of that countrys part inhabited by Tuaregtribes. This people are indeed a Stateless nation (they have never had aState) and the borders established by the colonial power aremeaningless for them. The MNLA – Mouvement National pour laLibération de l’Azawad (National Movement for the Liberation ofAzawad) has recently attacked/occupied various locations near theNiger "curve" in Mali.Given the weakness of the Malian army, it is no surprise that the "counter-terrorist" plan - with which the U.S. have involved Africas governments in2
  • 4. 19 feb 2012 4general and Sahels government in particular within the past few years ofAFRICOMs intense activity - be implemented.2.2 - IraqLate in 2011, the U.S. and their eager faithful left Iraq – leaving behind thecustomary "consultants" of the local army – a ballast of over 1 M civiliandeaths and the massive destruction of the countrys infrastructures; theseare the usual collateral issues - as used in NATOs jargon - to pacify thecountry. However, bombs continue to explode and to create victims3.This withdrawal, despite not ending the military presence or reducing thestrategic Middle East’s relevance for the U.S., demonstrates, in essence,failures and non achieved objectives.A number of relevant notes can be drawn from the invasion and lateroccupation of Iraq by the U.S. and their appendages - all of themanxious to leave the scene from very early – in order to approach thepresent Western posture against Iran and Syria:a)Let us remember the choir of the Western leaders and their conductor,the famous George W. Bush, all of them assuring to haveincontrovertible evidence of the existence of weapons of massivedestruction in Iraq. It has been confirmed that such weapons werenon-existent but what actually existed was its role as central argumentin a rough propaganda move. The argument against Iran on weaponsof massive destruction - or a similar line of argumentation - will certainlynot benefit from the same support as in 2003. However, it is alwayspossible to buy or enlist in the U.N. a few faithful such as the MarshallIslands or the dutiful minister Portas* to participate in any circus show.b)The promise of establishing a democracy - even a market democracy- has failed abysmally. To Saddams authoritarian and corrupt regimesucceeded a more diverse mandarinate – but no less corrupt - which,immediately after the U.S. invasion, knew how to make the best - the3* Portas is the surname of the Portuguese minister of the Foreign Affairs
  • 5. 19 feb 2012 5worse for Iraqis – of the U.S. funding and aids. The example intended tobe shown to regimes and peoples of the Middle East, namely that ofthe joys of market democracy, with the abandonment of the militaryor feudal authoritarianism, had no followers; the changes in Tunisiaand Egypt were essentially the result of the strenuous fight of thecrowd against the dictators and in no case was Iraq the inspiration;c) The result of the intervention in Iraq did not, in the end diminished theanti-American and anti-Western antipathy feelings in Muslim countries.Afghanistan is still occupied and Pakistanis despise the regime of thecorrupt Zardari and of the military, business men and torturers. TheArab monarchies continue calmly and quietly with their manifestationsof authoritarianism, repression and denial of civil and political rights ofthe population. Palestinians continue to be the subject of plunder oftheir land and their property at the hands of a racist sect that operatesas a Cerebrus guarding Western interests, especially energy interests,in the Middle East;d)The presence of American military in the Persian Gulf and on Arablands began in 1991 following the invasion of Kuwait by Saddam.Once the Iraqis were kicked out of "their" 19th Province, the U.S.allowed the continuation of Saddam, with limited sovereignty, with no-fly zones and sanctions which hit the population hard; it is quite clearthat the presence of the U.S. would continue on the argument ofsupervisioning Iraq, containment of its leader who, even weakened,functioned as a false threat to Kuwait or to Saudi Arabia;e) The invasion of Afghanistan (2001) and thereafter, of Iraq (2003) wereall forms of perpetuating the American presence in the Middle Eastwhich, meanwhile, spread on account of the "terrorist" threat, of Al-Qaeda and for the sake of the containment of Iran. Now, with thewithdrawal from Iraq and, from Afghanistan, in the nearest future, newthreats need to be designated to justify the presence in oil lands andin oil transit routes to rival countries. The U.S. is creating a militaryposture composed of 32 bases in the Persian Gulf region4 where Seeb,Thumrait and Masirah stand out in Oman, Al-Ubeid in Qatar, thecommand of the 5th fleet in Bahrain, near Manama and Camp Arifjanor Camp Doha in Kuwait;4
  • 6. 19 feb 2012 62.3 - AfghanistanThe U.S. have been there since 2001, when they invaded the country onthe pretext of capturing Bin Laden and his host, Mullah Omar, thegovernor of the fundamentalist Taliban, rulers of the country at the time.Obama announced his intention to withdraw from the country in 2014,leaving it to the care of his dependable man, Karzai, linked to CIA and aformer employee of an American oil company, Unocal, meanwhileintegrated into Chevron.Karzais regime is characterized by corruption and electoral fraud towhich the American tutelage closed its eyes to favour its ward. It is theU.S. military presence that guarantees that instability does notdegenerate into chaos and allows for Chinese and Indian investments.However, it appears that the three million refugees in Pakistan and Irando not trust that the Pax Americana will continue.The mountainous nature of the terrain and the difficulties of movementand travelling make ethnic and political differences more evident in arural society with strong patriarchal traditions and tribal, linguistic orethnic links that foster the existence of armed militias and warlords. Thewar and the strategic position promoted a flourishing activity of opiumcultivation and traffic which has caused serious social damage, butwhich is used for financing the warlord’s weaponry.As is clear, the fight against terrorism and the punishment of Bin Ladenwas a false argument to invade Afghanistan in 2001 but it was enough tofurther a patriotic and avenging wave in the U.S. as well as to justify theinfringement of rights and an anti-Islamic phobia that became an exportproduct. Later on, in 2008, the candidate Obama would refer to theunderdeveloped Afghanistan, landlocked in Asia and with no outlets tothe sea, as the real threat to U.S. security!Several factors explain this obsession for Afghanistan or derive from it:a)The presence in Afghanistan is a direct threat to Iran, the largest U.S.military base being located in Shindand, 100 km from the commonborder, although the logistics centre of the U.S. military apparatus is inBagram, to the north of Kabul;
  • 7. 19 feb 2012 7b)On a proactive trend, the U.S. tried to use Afghanistan to carry theimmense energy resources from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to theIndian Ocean, thus removing them from traffic routes dependent onRussia and at the same time without passing through Iran. This Projectfailed completely, as explained further ahead.c) Just like the Soviets in the 80s, the Americans did not study the failureof the British in Afghanistan, in the 19th century; and they forgot thecultural proximity of the Pashtun from both sides of the artificialborder with Pakistan (itself, another "brilliant" British creation to divideits Indies Empire). Consequently, the political and social instabilityworsened in Pakistan in a way that is likely to provoke conflicts withIndia;d)The poppy cultivation for the production of heroin in Afghanistan(something like 93% of the world production in 2007) occupies moreland than the coca plantation in Latin America and generates $50000 M per year5. The cultivation increased substantially since thedefeat of the Taliban and it plays a significant role in the Mafia-likeworld economy that forwards so much capital to the finance systemand the powerful Wall Street; both of them operating to thediscontent of the overwhelming majority of humanity. The warlordswork as guardians of the plantations, charging money for it under theblessing of the U.S.. This cultivation repeats what the U.S. has done inthe 1970s in Laos, in Cambodia and in Burma, where CIA controlledheroin and opium to finance the American war against theVietnamese guerrillas;e) The U.S. has already spent $ 438 000 M and the British £ 18 000 M withthe war in Afghanistan and it remains to be seen whether, after theirwithdrawal, the settling of accounts between the various warlords, theTaliban and Karzai will not bring the latter the faith of his predecessorNajibullah who, in 1989, after the departure of the Soviets, wasmurdered with barbaric sophistication.2.4 – Syria5
  • 8. 19 feb 2012 8The Syria situation – despite all the ambiguity of such designation, ispresenting new episodes on a daily basis.Where there is repression, there is resistance. There is dissent in Syria butapparently it is unable to overthrow the regime and the various socialforces that support it: the Orthodox Christians (4%), the Sunni oligarchsand Druses (3%), or the Armenians who tolerate the Alawite power, aShiite sect that represents 12% of the population and guarantees itstability; and whose opinion will probably change when Bashar will befalling. On the other hand, the predominance of the “Muslim Brothers” inthe contestation to Bashar does not attract many of those who preferthe secularism of the Syrian regime to a Sunni based religious regime withthe imposition of the Koran’s rule.a)Contrary to what has happened in Tunisia or in Egypt, where peacefulmass protests were (and still are) witnessed, in Syria and maybe notonly through desertions in the army, which were not relevant to breakits unity, the opposition has resorted to arms. From a strictly legal pointof view, this option justifies the brutal and heavy intervention againstthe insurgents, moreover only armed with Kalashnikovs;b)It is true that an armed insurrection, without a strong support of thecrowd, is always weak and it is bound to fail. Guevara paid with hislife his romantic vision of revolutions based on vanguards of heroes.Any guerrilla manual reflects Maos teaching “a revolutionary must beintegral to the people as a fish is to the water". In this sense, either theinsurgents widen their popular support to the point of isolating anddividing the present supporters of Bashar, or they will be crushed; andit does not appear realistic that a military intervention will take place inSyria as that observed in Libya, led by NATO;c) In the Syrian opposition there are not many adherents of an externalmilitary intervention to solve internal problems, since the country has arich history of humiliations, occupations and aggressions, the mostrecent of which came from the Israeli entity. The Iraqi and Libya caseshave showcased the altruistic aims of the Westerners; thus, theWestern commitment against Bashar does not give credibility to theopposition in Syria and neither does the tension of their Turkishneighbours. Let us also remember that the Ottoman Turkey ruled (theGreat) Syria until the 1914/18 war; that the French occupiers offered aslice of Syrian territory (the Sandjak of Alexandretta, known today asIskenderun) in 1939 in order to ensure the Turkish neutrality in the world
  • 9. 19 feb 2012 9conflict of 1939/45. However, Turkey refuses a foreign interventionand even the establishment of no-fly zones over Syria;d)There is a clear interest on the part of Russia (and China) to curbWestern urges against Syria. Their acceptance of Resolution 1973against Libya has been taken over and it has been used as steppingstone for NATOs aggression against that country. Once the war wasover, the redistribution of Libyan oil resources was carried out in favourof the Westerners, in particular of the French and the British, to thedetriment of the continuity of Russian and Chinese business withGaddafi. That is why both – Russia and China – used their right of vetoin the UN Security Council on the proposal against Syria, on the pastFebruary 4; they surely do not want to see repeated in Syria the poorresults obtained in Libya. As far as oil is concerned and in a worldthirsty for its consumption, despite the fact that Syria has no impressivereserves when compared to Libyas (2500 million barrels against 46400million barrels), cannot be ignored;e) On the other hand, Russia has a close relationship with Syria where itowns a naval base in Tartus, its only permanent position inMediterranean, a remnant of the Soviet greatness. It is not difficult toimagine that, after Bashar al-Assads fall, a new power created by theU.S. or thankful for the role played by the U.S. in the crusade for the"democratization" of Syria, will request the Russians to abandon Tartus.f) Following this veto, on February 6, the U.S. withdrew its diplomatic stafffrom Damascus, while Obama said the problem could be solvedwithout military intervention. Interestingly, the Western marketdemocracy regimes, in order to pressure the fall of the dictatorialSyrian regime, use as supporters the Arab League countries, themajority of which are dictatorships when they are not absolutemonarchies. In politics, gratitude is low valued; the Emir of Kuwait willhave forgotten that the Syria of Hafez al-Assad (Bashars father)condemned, in 1990, the invasion of Kuwait by Saddam, although thisand Hafez were the paramount leaders of two sister parties, the Iraqiand the Syrian Baas;g)A few years ago, Syria was the major obstacle to a project for thebuilding of pipelines between Turkey (Ceyhan) and Israel for oil, waterand electricity transportation to the Zionist territory, since it wouldnecessarily have to pass through Syrian territorial waters. A change ofregime in Damascus could be a project enabler considering that
  • 10. 19 feb 2012 10Turkey would ease its friction with Israel which resulted from the Zionistmilitary attack on the Turkish ship Mavi Marmara in May 2010;h) Also, Israel would be a great beneficiary of political changes in Syria ifthe new power would accept in fact the occupation of the GolanHeights in exchange for business with Israel and, above all, if it wouldmake life difficult for Hezbollah in Lebanon or would allow for itsisolation by limiting the influence of Teheran in Lebanon;i) Finally, and strategically, the democratic concern of the West over theregime in Damascus is essentially about the period of political andmilitary pressure against Iran, given the strong ties between Iran, Syriaand the Lebanese government.3 - What is left from the tragedies and comedies of the recent past?Intoxicated by the falling apart of dictatorships and of the state-controlled capitalism in Russia and Eastern Europe, the Westernersbelieved that their political and social model would be easilytransplanted to the Muslim world and beyond. If not through aquestionable moral superiority, at least through manu militari which, inbetween and with less media coverage, would help re-launching thepowerful military industry, resentful by the end of the Cold War6.The inevitability of the single neoliberal thought and of marketdemocracy propagated by the Westerners presents two appallingdenials. On one hand, Chinas economic growth reveals that arepressive regime is able to conciliate a state-controlled capitalism withthe private national or multinational initiative and even to becom
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