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GLOBE Advisors - Analysis of the Economic Development Opportunities Associated with the Green Economy in Newfoundland & Labrador

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Powering the Business of the Environment GLOBE Advisors is a boutique sustainability consulting firm headquartered in Vancouver, Canada, that specializes in providing project management, partnership development, market research, and strategic consulting services. We invite you to explore our website to find out how GLOBE Advisors can assist your organization with its strategic goals and objectives www.globeadvisors.ca Advancing Opportunities for Business and the Environment GLOBE Advisors, a subsidiary of the Vancouver-based not-for-profit GLOBE Foundation, was established in response to an increasing demand for project-based sustainability consulting services in the environmental business sector. The "GLOBE" name was established in 1990 and has become a recognized brand, both in Canada and internationally, with respect to the "business of the environment" - due in large part to the GLOBE Series of Conferences and Trade Fair Exhibitions held in Vancouver every two years and organized by the not-for-profit GLOBE Foundation. In 2012, the company's President and CEO, Dr. John Wiebe, was recognized as one of Canada's "Clean 16" for his outstanding contributions to clean capitalism. Our philosophy? Environmental challenges bring enormous opportunity for the business sector. Moreover, companies can do well by doing good for the environment, without sacrificing their bottom lines. Our three guiding principles: -Environmental problems are business opportunities. -Companies that can provide clean technologies and solutions will prosper. -Proactive organizations that embrace environmental sustainability will be more competitive.
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  • 1. An Analysis of the Economic Development Opportunities Associated with the Green Economy in Newfoundland & Labrador FINAL REPORT September 2011 in partnership with
  • 2. 1 An Analysis of the Economic Development Opportunities Associated with the Green Economy in NL GLOBE Advisors, a subsidiary of the Vancouver- based not-for-profit GLOBE Foundation, was established in 2005 in response to an increasing demand for project-based consulting services in the environmental business sector. Our vast networks and extensive experience in the areas of international project management and consulting, partnership development, and market research makes us well-positioned to undertake a number of endeavours to further the business of the environment. For more information on GLOBE Advisors, please visit our website at: www.globeadvisors.ca For more information on this study, please contact: Paul Shorthouse GLOBE Advisors World Trade Centre 578 – 999 Canada Place Vancouver, BC Canada V6C 3E1 Tel: 604.695.5001 Fax: 604.695.5019 Email: paul.shorthouse@globe.ca
  • 3. 2 An Analysis of the Economic Development Opportunities Associated with the Green Economy in NL This document has been prepared for the Government of Newfoundland & Labrador Department of Innovation, Trade & Rural Development & the Office of Climate Change, Energy Efficiency & Emissions Trading by in partnership with
  • 4. 3 An Analysis of the Economic Development Opportunities Associated with the Green Economy in NL
  • 5. i An Analysis of the Economic Development Opportunities Associated with the Green Economy in NL Executive Summary Greening the economy is a concept that is gaining considerable public interest and political attention around the globe as business and government leaders seek new opportunities in a carbon- and resource- constrained world. Many factors are driving the global shift toward a greener economy, most notably the need to address the impacts of climate change and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, to better manage scarce resources, to weather fluctuations in commodity, fuel, and food prices, and to generate new economic and employment opportunities. With this in mind, the Department of Innovation, Trade, and Rural Development and the Office of Climate Change, Energy Efficiency, and Emissions Trading within the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) engaged GLOBE Advisors, in partnership with AMEC Earth & Environmental in St. John’s, to carry out a study to identify the economic development, trade, and employment opportunities associated with greening the economy in NL. About this Study This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the current and potential future green economy opportunities in NL and is based on a review of global developments and outlooks for key green sectors, an analysis of current green activities in the Province of NL, and consultations with more than 75 stakeholders from various organizations across the province (i.e., businesses, governments, NGOs, industry associations, and academia). The report also considers current labour market trends in NL, as well as labour demand and supply related to the province’s green economy, including a review of relevant post-secondary education and training programs in the province. For the purposes of this report, the “green economy” is defined as “an economic development model that focuses on the promotion of sustainable economic growth, and the prevention of environmental pollution, global warming, resource depletion, and ecological degradation.” In short, the green economy encompasses activities, products, or systems that reduce non-renewable energy and raw materials consumption and reduce or eliminate harmful emissions / discharges and their impact on the environment. The Green Economy in NL In 2010, the green economy in NL was estimated to employ approximately 10,300 people 1 in 1,100 private sector and public sector organizations 2 , not including employees of governments engaged in green economy activities for which reliable employment data were unavailable. The green economy in NL, as defined in this study, comprises nine key sectors that are responsible for supplying the bulk of the green products and services in the province. These nine sectors are described below. 1 Equal to 4.0 percent of the NL labour force, based on the March 2011 labour force estimate of 252,100, published by the Government of NL (see: http://www.economics.gov.nl.ca/EB-labour.asp) 2 Logging, commercial fishing, fish and food processing, and some elements of the transportation sector were excluded at the request of the Government of NL.
  • 6. ii An Analysis of the Economic Development Opportunities Associated with the Green Economy in NL Sustainable Resource Management includes agriculture, aquaculture, and forestry. Agriculture accounts for two-thirds of the employment in this sector. Green Energy Supply is energy derived from renewable sources. In NL, hydro power dominates this sector. Wood pellets and other forms of bio- energy, along with wind, geo- exchange systems, and solar systems, account for 5 percent of employment in this sector. Green Building includes the design and construction of buildings and all associated systems and components required. Green Transportation is focused on GHG emissions reduction and includes all forms of energy-efficient transportation and transportation systems for the movement of goods and people. Environmental Protection includes the measurement, control, and reduction of toxic discharges and their impacts on the environment. Waste Management and Recycling includes the collection, sorting, processing, and distribution of recyclable materials up to, but not including, manufacturing of recycled products or green products with recycled content. Sustainable Tourism is tourism that “results in a net benefit for the social, economic, natural, and cultural environments of the area in which it takes place”. Sustainable Tourism encompasses low-impact transportation, the stewardship of parks and protected areas, environmentally-friendly lodging facilities, and a broad range of community and locally-based activities that generate sustainable economic benefits from tourism. Energy Efficiency and Conservation involves the deployment of energy use reduction technologies. Green Knowledge and Support crosses all other sectors of the green economy. It includes the human resources and skills required for the generation and commercialization of green economy innovations, together with the necessary education and skills training and information communications technologies. The sector also includes public sector programs and services (including regulation) relating to all areas of the green economy and in particular, to environmental protection, waste management, recycling, energy supply, and resource management (although job counts in this sector are not included in the employment estimates in this report). Sustainable Resource Management 24% Green Energy Supply 19% Green Building 16% Environmental Protection 13% Sustainable Tourism 11% Waste Management & Recycling 9% Green Knowledge & Support 4% Energy Efficiency & Conservation 2% Green Transport 2% NL Green Economy Jobs by Sector in 2010
  • 7. iii An Analysis of the Economic Development Opportunities Associated with the Green Economy in NL Opportunities in NL’s Green Economy A range of opportunities were identified within each segment of NL’s green economy. Opportunities were identified through stakeholder consultations and by considering green activities within each sector and segment using the Opportunity Matrix below. GREEN ECONOMY SECTORS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Check marks indicate opportunity areas within each sector of the green economy. For example, every sector engages in marketing and every sector requires skills training and education. SustainableResourceManagement GreenEnergySupply GreenBuilding GreenTransportation EnvironmentalProtection WasteManagement&Recycling SustainableTourism GreenKnowledge&Support EnergyEfficiency&Conservation OPPORTUNITY AREAS Design and Construction of Buildings & Infrastructure         Developing New Green Technologies         Employing Green Technologies and Practices        Marketing and Branding          Green Economy Skills Training & Education          Green Energy Utilization (Fossil Fuel Replacement)       Installing Green Technologies         Manufacturing Green Products from Green Commodities     Manufacturing Green Purposed Products or Technologies    Expanding / Diversifying Green Commodities Production     Reducing Environmental Impact of Travelling and Touring     Reducing Environmental Impact of Goods Transport     Maintenance and Repair of Technologies and Systems         Each identified opportunity was then considered in context of a number of factors including the availability of critical inputs, the stage of development, the engagement of local entrepreneurs and investors, and the status of the business case. Recommendations were then made based on these assessments.
  • 8. iv An Analysis of the Economic Development Opportunities Associated with the Green Economy in NL In many cases, NL is already engaged in investigating and / or exploiting the opportunities identified. In these cases, the report simply confirms the importance already attached to those opportunities. The reader is cautioned that the opportunities identified do not preclude or exclude other opportunities that may be under consideration in NL. Based on the identified opportunities and recommendations, two employment growth scenarios for NL’s green economy in 2020 are presented – specifically a “Business as Usual” (BAU) and a “Higher Growth” scenario. Business as Usual Scenario The “Business as Usual” (BAU) growth scenario assumes trends in each sector and segment established over the period 2000 through 2010 continue to 2020 and results in a corresponding amount of employment growth. For example, volumes of farmed fish and shell fish rose from around 5,000 tonnes in 2000 to over 15,000 tonnes in 2010. Taking account of productivity improvements, employment in 2020 was projected to increase by nearly 40 percent over 2010. Similar projections were made for other goods producing sectors and segments. Looking ahead to 2020, if current trends continue, total employment would rise to 12,000 (not including employees of governments). The highest growth sector in the BAU scenario is green energy, driven by large scale investments in hydro electric power expansion and growth in wood pellet production. 410 new jobs are projected for the sector. Green building construction is projected to continue to gain market share, generating some 260 new jobs. Aquaculture and green agriculture together are projected to generate some 260 new jobs in sustainable resource management. Sustainable tourism employment is projected to increase by 230 new jobs reflecting increased market share of nature tourism and expanding local economic opportunities derived from tourism spending. Employment in recycling operations is also expected to expand by some 200 new jobs reflecting increased collection and utilization of waste streams. Environmental protection, green knowledge and support services, energy efficiency systems and deployments, and green transportation are projected to generate another 270 new jobs by 2020. Sustainable Resource Management 310 Green Energy Supply 410 Green Building 260 Environmental Protection 140 Sustainable Tourism 230 Waste Management & Recycling 200 Green Knowledge & Support 70 Energy Efficiency & Conservation 40 Green Transport 20 NL Employment Growth by Sector to 2020, "Business as Usual" Scenario
  • 9. v An Analysis of the Economic Development Opportunities Associated with the Green Economy in NL Higher Growth Scenario The potential for expansion of each sector and segment is determined by a number of factors including market demand, capital investments, available renewable resources or recycled materials for the goods producing sectors and segments, and skilled labour across the board. Based on these considerations, a “Higher Growth” scenario was developed for the NL green economy that showed employment increasing to 13,450 by 2020. The figure below compares the BAU and Higher Growth scenarios for the various sectors of the NL green economy. Projected Employment Growth by Sector BAU Higher Growth 1 Sustainable Resource Management 311 638 2 Green Energy Supply 409 436 3 Green Building 262 557 4 Green Transportation 17 35 5 Environmental Protection 143 234 6 Waste Management & Recycling 204 478 7 Sustainable Tourism 234 378 8 Green Knowledge & Support 66 120 9 Energy Efficiency & Conservation 43 123 TOTALS 1,688 3,000 In the Higher Growth scenario, Sustainable Resource Management, Green Building, Waste Management and Recycling, and Sustainable Tourism account for 77 percent of the marginal employment impact as illustrated in the figure below. 3 Employment Growth to 2020 Attributable to Policy Recommendations 25% Sustainable Resource Management 22% Green Building 21% Waste Management & Recycling 11% Sustainable Tourism 7% Environmental Protection 6% Energy Efficiency & Conservation 4% Green Knowledge & Support 2% Green Energy Supply 1% Green Transportation 3 The difference between Higher Growth and BAU scenarios assumed to be due to realizing opportunities for growth identified in this report.
  • 10. vi An Analysis of the Economic Development Opportunities Associated with the Green Economy in NL Highest Impact Policy Recommendations Four sectors generate three-quarters of the jobs impact in the Higher Growth scenario. Consequently, priority was assigned to policy recommendations relating to those four sectors:  Sustainable Resource Management;  Green Building;  Waste Management and Recycling; and  Sustainable Tourism. Within these four sectors, the recommendations with the greatest employment impacts in the short- and medium-terms are summarized as being 4 :  Continued expansion of and diversification of NL aquaculture;  Support for farms to cut operating costs through waste-to-energy systems, pilot scale bio-fuel co- operatives, and small scale renewable energy systems (bio-energy, solar, wind etc.);  NL-based affordable certification for “organic” or “semi-organic” agri-food production;  Expansion of wood pellet production, coupled with changes in forest management practices to improve the economics for expansion and new pellet plants in NL;  Development and implementation of a liquid bio-fuels strategy, commencing with a set of lab scale or pilot scale ethanol and bio-diesel production projects designed to identify the most promising pathways for bio-fuels production in NL (e.g., cellulosic ethanol and fish oil to produce bio-diesel);  Expansion of the Better Building policies to all commercial, institutional, and residential construction;  Development and implementation of a comprehensive strategy to maximize opportunities for “made in NL” green building products and technologies – engage professional associations, construction firms, educational and research organizations, and developers in the strategy development process;  Implementation of a waste-to-profit strategy for the expansion of the recycling segment of the green economy, together with growth in NL green products manufacturing linked to green building demand and other markets;  Expansion of sustainable tourism initiatives by marshalling local talent and capabilities to participate in a broader strategy for increasing sustainable tourism in NL;  A review and expansion of opportunities for developing local tourism products and services and sales by local farmers and artisans, writers, artists, and others adjacent to tourism destinations and foster and encourage the use of locally-grown and produced food products in tourist facilities and support transitions to greener practices (e.g., composting, recycling, etc.) by tourism services; and  A communications and network building strategy focused on green knowledge and support, including a major conference to assist the growth of the NL green economy and move the recommended actions in this report ahead. There are, of course, many other opportunities for growth in all sectors of the NL green economy and these are presented in the Opportunities section of this report. 4 The reader is referred to the opportunities section in this report for greater detail.
  • 11. vii An Analysis of the Economic Development Opportunities Associated with the Green Economy in NL Exports and Imports Replacement The majority of green economy opportunities identified focus on local market demand. However, as the green economy expands, sales to international and inter-provincial markets would also expand. The main opportunities for export sales were identified as:  Renewable electrical energy;  Aquaculture;  Sustainable tourism;  Wood pellets and other bio-fuels;  Specialized services and technologies in environmental protection; and  Ocean technologies relating to the green economy. In addition to the trade opportunities, green economy growth would also replace some imports with local products and services including:  Local food and food products;  NL-based testing and certification services (various sectors); and  Preferred use of NL wood products and other green products and systems for green building. Institutional Recommendations Important institutional initiatives include the establishment of:  NL-based testing and certification capacities that are affordable and appropriate for the scale of the NL green economy;  A NL energy efficiency central coordinating office or agency which addresses both electricity and fossil fuels reduction; and  Programs to allow NL green initiatives to gain the benefit of highly-skilled public servants working directly on building the NL green economy. Biggest GHG Impacts Beyond GHG emission reductions accruing from the Muskrat Falls / Lower Churchill project, the greatest impacts in GHG emission reductions would accrue from opportunities in:  Bio-fuels utilization for green transportation and energy supply;  Energy efficiency and energy saving in all sectors; and  Green building. Labour Market Implications Demand is expected to grow over the next several years for workers in the Sustainable Resource Management, Green Building, Sustainable Tourism, Energy Efficiency and Conservation, Environmental Protection, and Waste Management and Recycling sectors (e.g., consultants, workers in aquaculture and agriculture, experts in remediation, and professionals in waste management / recycling, water, and wastewater treatment).
  • 12. viii An Analysis of the Economic Development Opportunities Associated with the Green Economy in NL The greatest pressure for green workers in the short-term is projected to felt in the engineering and skilled construction trades as a result of the number of major projects coming online over the next several years. It will be important to ensure that labour supply (i.e., new workforce entrants and existing workers) is aligned with labour demand (i.e., based on industry / market needs and the direction of public policy / regulations) and education and training must provide the skills for both present and emerging practices and technologies. Along with relevant educational and training programming will come a need for appropriate facilities (i.e., laboratories, demonstration projects, etc.), as well as for qualified instructors, such as those familiar with emerging technologies in district or unit scale renewable energy, bio-fuel production, energy management, and “smart” tech
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