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Nº de Aluna: CHINA S SPACE PROGRAM: A NEW TOOL FOR PRC SOFT POWER IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS? MARA IMRAN MASTER DISSERTATION Supervisor: Dr. Tiago Moreira de Sá SEPTEMBER 2010 DECLARATION I declare that this thesis is the result of my independent and personal research. Its content is original and all sources consulted are duly mentioned in the text, notes and bibliography. The candidate, Lisbon,... of... of... I declare that this thesis is able to be submitted to public examination. The supervisor, Lisbon,... of... of... i Personal Dedication In the name of God Almighty, most gracious and most merciful, who blessed me with the wisdom and knowledge to accomplish my goal. I dedicate this work to my dear husband, Dr. Tayyab Imran who encouraged me in my desire and determination to enhance my knowledge. I could not have completed this journey without him. He inspired, motivated, and challenged me in every step of life since I married, especially for believing in me. Also, I would like to dedicate my work to my baby who is soon to arrive in this world. ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS It is with great pleasure that I thank the many people who made my education and this thesis possible. It has been a fantastic experience for me, as a person from Romania, to study and live for two years in Portugal. My life has become much more enriched by this experience. I have established friendship with many nice people and as a student I got the chance to learn a lot about Portuguese culture and history. I am grateful and indebted to all my professors in Ciência Política e Relações Internacionais Área de Especialização em Relações Internacionais, for giving me the chance and opportunity to pursue my Master at the Universidade Nova de Lisboa. My special thanks to Prof. Dr. Carlos Gaspar, who has provided me with stimulating discussions in his classes. I truly value your opinion and expertise, thank for your support and motivation during the course of my study. My highest regard goes to Dr. Tiago Moreira de Sá, for all your support and sound advice during my stay at UNL FSCH and especially helping me in organize my thoughts in writing this thesis. Without his supervision, this thesis would not have been a reality, thanks again for your valuable time and guidance. iii RESUMO Quando a China lançou um anti-satélite (ASAT) em Janeiro de 2007 para destruir um de seus satélites meteorológicos inactivos, a maioria das reacções de académicos e especialistas espaciais dos Estados Unidos da América focaram-se numa potencial corrida espacial militar entre os Estados Unidos e China. Esquecido, no entanto, é o crescente papel da China como competidor global no lado não-militar do espaço. O programa espacial Chinês vai muito além das aplicações militares contra-espaciais e as manifestas aspirações a missões tripuladas, incluindo a exploração lunar. A sua busca de ambos os empreendimentos comerciais e científicos internacionais constitui uma pequena, mas crescente, percentagem global de lançamentos para o espaço e para a indústria dos serviços relacionados com satélite. Destaca-se também a vontade da China para cooperar com as nações distantes da Ásia para fins políticos e estratégicos. Estas parcerias podem constituir um desafio para os Estados Unidos e aumentar o soft power da China entre os principais aliados dos Estados Unidos e mesmo em algumas regiões tradicionalmente de influência estado-unidense (por exemplo, a América Latina e África). Assim sendo, uma resposta adequada dos E.U.A. não pode estar assente no empreendimento de um esforço contra-espacial baseado no hard power, mas sim num renascimento dos esforços estado-unidenses de exploração espacial do passado, bem como a implementação de políticas de controle de exportações mais favoráveis para os negócios. PALAVRAS-CHAVE: China, República Popular da China, o espaço, os satélites, soft power, contra-espaciais, APSCO, APRSAF, E.U.A., política espacial, a segurança do espaço, ASAT, ITAR iv ABSTRACT When China launched an anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon in January 2007 to destroy one of its inactive weather satellites, most reactions from academics and U.S. space experts focused on a potential military space race between the United States and China. Overlooked, however, is China s growing role as global competitor on the non-military side of space. China s space program goes far beyond military counterspace applications and manifests manned space aspirations, including lunar exploration. Its pursuit of both commercial and scientific international space ventures constitutes a small, yet growing, percentage of the global space launch and related satellite service industry. It also highlights China s willingness to cooperate with nations far away from Asia for political and strategic purposes. These partnerships may constitute a challenge to the United States and enhance China s soft power among key American allies and even in some regions traditionally dominated by U.S. influence (e.g., Latin America and Africa). Thus, an appropriate U.S. response may not lie in a hard power counterspace effort but instead in a revival of U.S. space outreach of the past, as well as implementation of more business-friendly export control policies. KEYWORDS: China, People s Republic of China, space, satellites, soft power, counterspace, APSCO, APRSAF, U.S. space policy, space security, ASAT, ITAR. v TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION.1 1. RESEARCH QUESTION AND OBJECTIVE REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND SOURCES OVERVIEW OF PROBLEMS AND HYPOTHESIS IMPORTANCE AND RELEVANCE TO U.S. POLICY STRUCTURE OF THE CHAPTERS.13 CHAPTER I: CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF SOFT POWER 15 I. 1. DEFINITION AND SOURCES OF SOFT POWER.16 I. 2. SOFT POWER WITH CHINESES CHARACTERISTICS..18 CHAPTER II: CHINESE SPACE MOTIVATIONS AND CAPABILITIES...24 II. 1. SPACE PROGRAMS: ONLY A SUPERPOWER LUXURY?...24 II. 2. MOTIVATIONS AND EMERGING CAPABILITIES OF THE CHINESE SPACE PROGRAM.26 II. 3. CINA S SPACE LAUNCH FACILITIES...32 II. 4. CHINA S SPACE TRACKING CAPABILITY...33 II. 5. CHINA S MANNED SPACE PROGRAM..34 II. 6. CHINA S SATELLITES...35 CHAPTER III: CHINA S SOFT POWER IN SPACE: DOMESTIC ASPECTS...38 III. 1. SHENZHOU: LEADERSHIP LEGITIMIZER?...40 III. 2. AMBITIONS FOR THE MOON, MARS & A SPACE STATION.44 III. 3. DOMESTIC SPACE APPLICATIONS & SPINOFFS...51 vi CHAPTER IV: CHINA S SOFT POWER IN SPACE: INTERNATIONAL ASPECTS...61 IV. 1. CHINA WITH EUROPE.64 IV. 2. CHINA WITH SOUTH AMERICA 66 IV. 3. CHINA WITH AFRICA...70 IV. 4. CHINA WITH ASIA 73 IV. 5. CHINA WITH THE UNITED NATIONS...76 IV. 6. CHINA AND POSSIBLE SPACE CHALLENGERS IN ASIA...79 IV. 7. CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES: RIVAL, COMPETITOR, OR PARTNER?...83 CONCLUSION 91 LIST OF REFERENCES LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF TABLES..129 vii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ABM AP-MCSTA APRSAF APSCO ASAT ASEAN BMD CALT CAS CASC CAST CBERS CCP CCTV CD CLEP CNSA COPUOS CSSTEAP CZ DFH DoD DSP EOSAT ESA Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty Asia-Pacific Multilateral Cooperation in Space Technology and Applications Asia-Pacific Regional Space Agency Forum Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization Anti-Satellite Association of South East Asian Nations Ballistic Missile Defense Chinese Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology China Academy of Sciences China Aerospace Science & Technology Corporation China Academy of Space Technology China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite Chinese Communist Party China Central Television Conference on Disarmament Chinese Lunar Exploration Program China National Space Agency Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UN) Center for Space Science and Technology Education in Asia and the Pacific (UN) Chang Zheng ( Long March ) Dong Fang Hong ( The East is Red ) Department of Defense (US) Defense Support Program Earth Observation Satellite Company (US) European Space Agency viii EU EVA F-BOM FMCT GEO GIS GPS IADC ICBM INEP IR ISRO ISS ITAR KKV LEO MEO MTCR MOST MoU MTCR MUST NAOC NASA NATO NMD NOAA NRSCC NSAs European Union Extravehicular Activity Fratricide by Orbital Mechanics Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty Geosynchronous Orbit Geographic Information System Global Positioning System Inter-Agency Debris Coordinating Committee Intercontinental Ballistic Missile National Institute of Space Investigation Brazil International Relation Indian Space Research Organization International Space Station International Traffic in Arms Regulations Kinetic Kill Vehicle Low Earth Orbit Medium Earth Orbit Missile Technology Control Regime Ministry of Science and Technology Memorandum of Understanding Missile Technology Control Regim Macao s University of Science and Technology National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences National Aeronautics and Space Administration (US) North Atlantic Treaty Organization National Missile Defense National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US) National Remote Sensing Center of China Nuclear Disarmament, Negative Security Assurances ix OOSA PAROS PNT PLA PPWT PRC RESAP SCOSA SMMS TCBM THEOS TT&C UN UNESCAP US Office of Outer Space Affairs (UN) Prevention of Arms Race in Outer Space Precision Navigation and Timing People's Liberation Army (China) Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space People s Republic of China Regional Space Application Program (UN) Sub-Committee on Space technology and Applications (ASEAN) Small Multi-Mission Satellite Transparency and Confidence Building Measures in Outer Space Activities Thailand Earth Observation Satellite Telemetry, Tracking & Control United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific s (UN) United States x INTRODUCTION The purpose of this dissertation is to examine the political dimension of contemporary space activities by analyzing the strategic objectives and motivations of the governments that undertake this programme particularly how China is using space as a soft power tool in International Relations and whether Washington is miscalculating the main direction of China s threat to U.S. space policy and strategy. Today s world politics is in fase of transition from unipolarity to multipolarity, and it s characterized by competition among nations. As Robert Kagan notes, the grand expectation that after the Cold War the world would enter an era of a peaceful and homogeneous international system has proven wrong. Competition for status and global influence has once again become the key feature of the international scene. 1 As a reflection of the international system, the contemporary space environment is characterized by a multiplicity of space-faring nations 2 competing for honour and influence. Where the traditional space pattern was limited to the political-military confrontation of the United States and the former Soviet Union, recent decades have seen the rapid proliferation of new nations active in space, including developing and smaller countries. China, India, Japan and the European Union all now have independent capabilities to send satellites and spacecraft into orbit, including the indigenous production of launch vehicles. Several other countries, such as Israel, South Korea, Brazil, Iran, Malaysia, Pakistan, Turkey and Taiwan, are at various stages of development of their own satellite and launching capabilities. The origin of the Space Age, and thus of the politics of space, can be traced back to the 4 th October 1957, when the Soviet Union launched, from a secret missile base in the Soviet Republic of Kazakhstan, the first man-made orbiting satellite, Sputnik I. This event is regarded as a fundamental transition point in world history and changed the context of international relations, generating the global perception that the United 1 Kagan, R 2008, The Return of History and the End of Dreams. 2 The term space-faring nation is used to define a nation capable to launch vehicles into space 1 States was technically inferior to, and hence potentially weaker, than the Soviet Union, and conferring to the latter significant prestige, translated as an increased power status 3. The United States political status and national interests were therefore at stake when President John F. Kennedy announced in 1961 the creation of the Apollo program, intended to send a man to the moon and back before the end of the decade. The Apollo program was therefore created to counter the negative perception generated by the Sputnik s success; the logic behind Apollo was a space race for leadership strategy in the Cold War fight for global influence against the Soviets. As Joan Johnson-Freese notes, space is a strategic asset capable of directly securing national and foreign policy interests, and it has never been solely, or even primarily, about exploration. It has always been linked to other goals, usually related to foreign policy. 4 The studies of Michael Sheehan also provide a corrective to the idea that space programmes are science-driven, according to Sheehan, space and politics are, and always have been, inseparably interlinked. The central driving force for all space programmes has been political objectives. Space programmes have reflected and implemented the prevailing national and international ideologies of the time, whether they are power politics, communist internationalism, European integration, national selfdetermination or anything else RESEARCH QUESTION AND OBJECTIVE Ever since China launched an anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon in early 2007 to destroy one of its inactive weather satellites, a great deal of attention has focused on prospects for a possible military space race between the United States and China. 3 The U.S. Information Agency in the report Impact of U.S. and Soviet Space Programs on World Opinion, published in July 1959, determined: In sum: Sensitivity to military implications is marked, and has produced strong concern over the possibility that the USSR now enjoys military superiority over the West, and a belief in some quarters that this is a fact Soviet successes in space have produced a major revision in the image of the USSR and to some degree of the Soviet system, and lent greatly enhanced credibility to Soviet propaganda claims. The USSR, by appearing to have spectacularly overtaken the US in a field in which the US was very generally assumed to be first by a wide margin, is now able to present itself as fully comparable to the US and able to challenge it in any field it chooses -- perhaps the most striking aspect of the propaganda impact of space developments. 4 Johnson-Freese, J 2007, Space as a Strategic Asset, Columbia University Press, p.7. 5 Sheehan, M 2007, The International Politics of Space, Routledge, p.2 2 However, has been overlooked is China s growing role as global competitor on the nonmilitary side of space. Thus, the focus of this thesis addresses the question of how is China using cooperative commercial and scientific space ventures as part of a larger strategy to increase its soft power and enhance its international reputation and influence with in Asia and across the globe. The objective of this research consists in providing a better understanding of the contemporary politics of space. The present acceleration and expansion of international space capabilities and activities will be therefore described in terms of soft power, that is the quest for international prestige and national pride. 2. REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE The literature on China s space activities is already voluminous. A subset of this work address issues of direct relevance to this thesis: Is China pursuing a space program to enhance national unity? Or is it focused more on its economic development? It is done for international respect? Or are the efforts at military power projection through space assets part of a larger anti-access strategy so it can retake Taiwan without interference from Washington? A study by U.S. Air Force Lt. Col. J. Barry Patterson looked at China s space program from the perspective of the threat posed to the United States in two main areas: economic impact and security. He argues that since the Chinese space program is subsidized by the government (exaggerated further by the generally lower comparative wages for its space scientists as well the undervalued renminbi), Beijing is in a position to dump space launch services onto the world market. 6 He also cites security concerns that any assistance given to the Chinese in increasing launch reliability and apogee kick motor technologies would be directly transferable to their Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) program and, worse yet, possibly exported to rogue nations and used against American interests. 7 Given that the paper was written in 1995, some of the data are not as relevant today, especially given the growing number of Chinese commercial 6 Lieutenant Colonel J. Barry Patterson, China s Space Program and its Implications for the United States (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air War College, April 19, 1995), Ibid Apogee kick motors are used to boost satellites from geostationary transfer orbit (GTO, approx. 600 miles) out to geostationary (GEO, approx. 22,300 miles) but would also help Chinese military refine their solid-rocket motors. 3 and non-strategic (space science) launches since the Loral-Hughes scandal. However, the potential for dual-use, civilian-military space technology transfer has been consistently raised as one of main objections to Chinese-U.S. space cooperation and the issue will likely remain a thorny issue for some time to come. Steven Lambakis sees China s growing commercial space capabilities as having an important role to play militarily as well. He highlights Chinese recognition of space as a new arena for competition and a strategic frontier that needs to be defended. 8 Citing a number of Chinese Army generals, defense professionals, and numerous FBIS translations from Chinese military journals dating mostly from the mid-1990s, he draws the conclusion that that China fully understands and appreciates the wide array of military advantages that space offers, especially in a Taiwan Strait scenario. He asserts that military satellites are now legitimate targets in war and thus ASATs are legitimate weapons. 9 Three events in recent history have shaped a decidedly negative view of the Chinese space program: the Cox Commission Report, the Wen Ho Lee scandal, and the 2007 Chinese Anti-Satellite (ASAT) test. The Cox Commission Report, released in 1999, painted China as a direct threat to the United States, especially with regard to space-based as well as ground-based anti-satellite systems. 10 Its genesis was the botched Chinese Long March 2E rocket launches of Hughes satellites in 1992 and 1995 and the failed Long March 3B launch of Loral s Intelsat 708 and the subsequent efforts by these U.S. companies to help the Chinese analyze and overcome their technical problems. Although several chapters of the Cox report are concerned with possible transfers of high performance computers and U.S. nuclear weapons designs, the bulk of the report investigates Chinese acquisition of American technology for their missile and space forces and satellite launches. It details Chinese efforts to use U.S. technology to enhance their Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) and military space program through advances in missile airframe fairing (shroud) design and reliability, improved guidance 8 Steven J. Lambakis, On the Edge of Earth: The Future of American Space Power (Lexington, KY: University of Kentucky Press, 2001), Lambakis, On the Edge of Earth: The Future of American Space Power, 194. Also see William E. Burrows, The Survival Imperative: Using Space to Protect Earth (New York, NY: Forge, Tom Doherty & Associates, 2006), The classified report was released on January 3, 1999, and the declassified report on May 25, and control, staging mechanisms and associated kick motors and smart dispensers, stress & load tests, launch failure anom


Jul 28, 2017
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