Concepts & Trends

Application of Multi-Index Decision Analysis to Management Scenarios Considering Climate Change Prediction in the Zayandeh Rud River Basin

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account various hydrological events and integrate them with technical, economic, environmental, and social issues for water resources management at the catchment area [4, 14, 46]. In recent years, the use of computer models for the management of
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  account various hydrological events and integrate them withtechnical, economic, environmental, and social issues for water resourcesmanagementatthecatchmentarea[4,14,46].Inrecent  years, the use of computer models for the management of water resourceshasbecomecommon,forexampleWEAP,RIBASIM,MIKEBASI, WBALMO, and MODSIM are noted as examplesof their application [4, 11, 15, 22]. Among the existing models, the WEAP model has been popular,due to its ability to combineimportant processes affecting the natural and human systems of waterresourcesmanagementintheriverbasin[39].WEAPcon-siders all water sources in a basin for sustainable development.Adebola et al. [1] mentioned that for accomplishing water levelreduction in the Aprasing River Basin, water use in the USAused the Mod flow groundwater model and evaluated the effect of water allocation using the WEAP model. The WEAP wasused in the Olifants basin by Thiam et al. [43] for analysis,modeling, and scenario planning for water allocation. By apply-ing management practices, 10, 20, and 30% reduction in water consumption were sought to compensate for lack of funding.Dubinsky and Karunanithi [14] in the Sacramento catchment adaptation project, which includes adaptation to environmental,climate, food, and natural changes, WEAP was used for devel-opment and assessment of adaptation strategies. The purpose of this study is to coordinate management practices with changesoccurring in the catchment area, such as land use changes, tomaximize the use of water resources.Kuhnetal. [26]usedWEAPtofindthecausesandtypesof futureproblemsintheNivashhaLakeBasininKenya.Resultsindicated that the main problem was related to the agriculturalsector, so thatin some areas water allocation was much higher than the irrigation requirement, while in other areas the totalneeds were not provided. In order to improve the water allo-cation within the Dongh River basin in Vietnam, water allo-cation was examined using WEAP, from a comprehensiveviewpoint, including economic efficiency [35]. The frame-work of this model is based on the type of water use (agricul-ture, industry, hydroelectricity, domestic, and environmentaluses), the location of areas where water was usable, and therules for prioritizingwaterinthe basin.Under this framework, policies that can influence the prioritization and use of water includedthe basin andmacroeconomicpolicies. Waterqualitymanagement indexes were evaluated upstream of theLithianian basin in Lebanon using WEAP and GIS models[43].In order toallocate water, WEAPwas used asa planningtool to minimize water conflict in Sacramento [14].Tizro et al. [45] used WEAP in the Hamedan watershedsand the results showed that by changing cropping patterns or reducing the land area of agriculture, groundwater balancecould be achieved.In order to cope with water crisis and supplying water needs in arid lands, considering the needs of agriculture,drinking, and industry by simulation based on optimizationusing the WEAP and LINGO software in two current situationsand the implementation of the plan withthe average percentageof6%annualdeficit for differentscenarios provid-ed an acceptable water utilization plan [48]. Using monthlymodeling of water resources using the WEAP model, the ef-fect of water transfer between the Karoon basins was exam-ined [9]. Results showed that the output of the Beheshtakadand Koohrang Rivers in the future, assuming that the devel-opment plans for water resources defined in the exploitationstage,will decreaseby27%,comparedwith the conditions for the development of the basin, up to 27%.Dehghanetal. [12] usedWEAPfor planningthe allocationof water resources for the purpose of transferring water at theGorganroud area.Tizro et al. [45] applied the WEAP model to analyze im- provementinirrigationefficiencyintheHamedanbasin.Also,Kishiwaetal.[23]usedtheWEAPmodelintheassessmentof impacts of climate change on surface water for the present time for the Pangani River Basin in Tanzania.In order to analyze ecological water demands in the MaraRiver Basin in Kenya, Metobwa et al. [31] used the WEAPmodel.In addition, Slaughter and Mantel [40] and Tian et al. [44] used the WEAP model to analyze groundwater quality.Considering water crisis and the importance of planningand managing water resources in the country in light of thelack of planning for water allocation in the future, introducingnew models of climate change and socioeconomic conditionsfor water resource management tries to create a better under-standingofwaterresourcesmanagementbyusingtheintegrat-edwater resources model and itsintegration with the variable- prediction model as well as socioeconomic parameters (suchas population increase and agricultural productivity changes,etc.). Decision-making, consistent with the current and futurecorrective plans, can help with better water resource manage-ment. In this study, WEAP was used for planning and manag-ing water resources. The basis of this software is the calcula-tion of water balance, in which both water resources manage-ment and environmental management are considered. TheWEAP management structure, using the scenarios in whichit is written, illustrates the status of the future of water, whichcan include climate change impact, land use management,demand, setting, and planning for different sectors, includingagriculture, industry, drinking, and environment in theZayandeh Rud area. Materials and Methods Overview of Methodology In WEAP, the regular scenario modeling effort contains threesteps: (1) a Current Accounts year is selected to serve as the base year of the model, (2) a Reference scenario is established Water Conserv Sci Eng  from the Current Accounts to simulate likely evolution of thesystem without intervention, and (3)  B what-if  ^  scenarios cre-ated to alter the  B Reference Scenario ^  and evaluate the effectsof changes in climate change/policies and/or technologies.The data used in modeling for current accounts is ranged for the period of 1973  –  2005. For allocation of available re-sources, a number of option tested by developing several sce-narios and future water demands are projected. The WEAPsoftware was used to evaluate the future water demands andfuturewaterresourcemanagementintheZayandehRudRiver  basin.WEAP applications generally contain the following steps: &  Problem definition including time frame, spatial bound-ary, system components, and configuration &  Establishing the  B current accounts, ^  which provides asnapshot of actual water demand, resources, and suppliesfor the system &  Building scenarios based on different sets of future trends based on policies, technological development, and other factors that affect demand, supply, and hydrology &  Evaluating the scenarios with regard to criteria such asadequacy of water resources, costs, benefits, and environ-mental impactsThe scenarios can address a broad range of   B what if  ^  ques-tions,suchas: Whatifpopulationgrowthandclimatechange?What if irrigation techniques and crop patterns are altered?What if various demand management strategies areimplemented?WEAP model has two primary functions. &  Simulation of natural hydrological processes (e.g., evapo-transpiration,runoff,andinfiltration) toenableassessment of the availability of water within a catchment  &  Simulation of anthropogenic activities superimposed onthe natural system to influence water resources and their allocation (i.e., consumptive and non-consumptive water demands) to enable evaluation of the impact of humanwater useUsing Multi-Index Decision for water resource manage-ment,variouschallengeswhichoccurinriverbasinsinpresent and future time periods can be controlled. Therefore, after obtaining vulnerability factors for current conditions in theriver basin, with using the multi-decision-making model for water management, multiviews of the future conditions withfull ranges of uncertainties can be managed better. Also, itcanhelp for future decision makers because probability of thefutureproblemscan becharacterizedandalternative strategiescan be built [13, 22]. In this study, at first, the integrated water resource manage-ment model (WEAP) is used for present conditions (includingthe parameter of climate, hydrology, water demands, and pol-icy situation) to show the current water management in the basin.Then,predicteddata,includingtheparameterofclimatechange (e.g., precipitation, temperature, humidity, and evapo-transpiration), water demands, policy factors (e.g., priority of water user and rules for water reuse), and social factors (e.g., population growth rates) for the future time period, wereinserted into the WEAP model to display the possible futurewater managementinthebasin.Ifthevalueofwateravailabil-ity cannot cover the water demands for the future time period,then alternative strategies for adaptation water management are built as adaptation scenarios. The following sections ex- plaintheoverviewofthebasin,structureoftheWEAPmodel,datausedfortheintegratedwaterresourcemanagementmodel(WEAP) for current and future time periods, and the possibleadaptation scenarios for making better strategies and proper water management in the basin.Figure 1 also shows the applied processes in integratedwater resource management (WEAP) with using multi-indexdecision. Basin Studied The study basin isone of the main basin districts of the desert,with an area of 41,548 km 2 , between 32° 10 ′  to 33° 40 ′  north-ern latitude and 50° 30 ′  to 53° 23 ′  eastern longitude. Thegeographical area is limited from the north of Salt Lake tothe west of the Gulf of Oman and the Oman Sea and fromtheeastoftheKavir-siyahkoohmountainrangetothesouthof the Kavirirsirjan subzone. Among its important rivers, theZayandeh Rud has a length of 405 km, Khoshkehrood River has a length of 165 km, Izodkhad has a length of 125 km, Characterize the present situation of water allocation and understand the  possible  problems (by modeling of WEAP)Run the model with  predicted data for water allocation (include the  parameter of climate change, water demands and policy factors (e.g., priority of water user and rules for water reuse) for future timeCharacterize the future vulnerability for water resources and water usersEvaluate alternative strategies to combat the future vulnerabilities (modeling adaptation scenarios) Fig. 1  Applied processes in integrated water resource management (WEAP) with using multi-index decision Water Conserv Sci Eng  Segonbad has a length of 85 km, Kahrooye has a length of 60 km long, Dharar has a length of 52 km, Esfarian has alength 50 km, Tighezard has a length of 50 km, andJoshaghan has a length of 40 km. The catchment area covers parts of the provinces of Isfahan, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari,Fars, and Yazd, with Isfahan Province having more than 83%and Yazd having less than 3.5%, the largest and the lowest shares, respectively. Figure 2 shows the scope of the study. Natural flows of the Zayandeh Rud River increase with thediversionofwaterfromthedevianttunnelsofthefirstandsecondKoohrang, which srcinates from the Koohrang River inChaharmahalandBakhtiariprovinces.Becausetheaveragerain-fall in the basin is less than 150 mm per year, the Zayandeh RudDam storage in Chadegan is provided by spring and winter run-offandreleasedasastreamsetintheriver.Theupstreampartsof thebasincoverlessthan10%oftheentirebasin,whichismostlymountainous. The central and lower parts of the basin consist of sedimentary plains, with the most consuming agriculture (89%).Also, a large number of overflows and detours have been con-structed along the river, thus water is drained for urban andindustrial areas. The Zayandeh Rud basin ends in a naturalswamp and gullous salts.The components of this study include water resources andconsumption points. Water resources in this area include sur-face water, groundwater, and reuse. The Zayandeh Rud,Khoshkehrood, Izadkhast, Segonbad, Garghooye, Dharar,Asfarian, Tighezard, and Joshaghan rivers provide the surfacewaters of the study area.To analyze the demand for water in the basin, the needs aredivided into three sectors: agriculture, industry, and domestic(drinking) in 17 sub-basins (as shown in the prefix 42 inFig. 3). Figure 3 shows the position of these areas. Each of  the consumption points is fed from three river water sourcesand wells. The purpose of allocation of water is to supplywater needed in different sectors and to review their improve-ment for the future. WEAP Model WEAP, developed in 1988 by Ruskin and subsequently re-vised under his supervision, is a computerized tool for inte-grated water resources planning. This was developed with theintention of engaging water projects in the context of issuesrelated to the management of consumption, water quality, andconservation in water resource planning. It provides a com- prehensive framework for policy analysis [25].The main advantage of WEAP is the integrated approachfor simulating and optimizing water resources systems andorienting them in line with policies [6]. It considers needs(water patterns, equipment returns, reuse, costs, and Fig. 2  The area studied in the Zayandeh Rud Basin [19] Water Conserv Sci Eng  allocations) in line with resources (surface flows, groundwa-ter, reservoirs, and water transitions) and using linear optimi-zation for the best solution [23].WEAP can be used in urban and agricultural systems, in-dependent basins, or complex river systems [49]. It can cover a wide range of issues such as needs analysis, water protec-tion,rightsandallocationprivileges,simulationofsurfaceandunderground waters, reservoir operation, hydroelectric power generation, pollution control, environmental requirements,vulnerability assessment, and cost benefit analysis [24, 37]. Fig. 3  Configuration of resources and water consumption in the Zayandeh Rud area (modified and updated from chapter seven of MYCE [32] about water consumption and water needs of urban and rural communities) Water Conserv Sci Eng
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